2 booster away from orbit (not likely)

True. We might also get lucky and get to see the first launch off one of the new floating launch pads in that case(if they can finish it by then). It took F9 quite a few tries before it landed successfully, but after seeing SN8-10 perform way above expectations, I think BN2-3 have good chances of success

@YaMomzBox420 if BN2 crashes I expect that BN3 will be delayed or scrapped because that would mean that they aren’t ready for orbital launch. We might see orbital at BN4 or BN5 if BN2 crashes.

@Tweedle_Aerospace it's all good, I expected BN1 to fly too and just found out today that it's not. As far as BN2, BN3, and SN20 goes, you're completely right, that is the plan, especially if the current pace of development keeps going. I said "by the end of the year" just to account for any delays that might happen. And yeah, I'm worried about the orbital launch/landing site too. That's a lot of work to redo

@YaMomzBox420 my bad on BN1. But BN3 is expected to be the one to launch SN20 to orbit. This is after they are likely to skip 18 and 19. But 16 and 17 are likely to fly. BN2 probably won’t go high. But we may see it be reused. As with the grasshopper. Due to a lot of engine problems already being solved along with more on the way BN2 may survive its first landing. Whether or not it gets caught. I am just worried about how much of a risk to the launch site catching a booster will be. If the booster comes in too fast it could completely destroy the launch tower and crane. Setting back orbital launches by more than 6 months most likely. But if they do reflux BN2 it will likely start with small hops and then maybe even go higher than New Shepard launches.

Unfortunately, BN1 isn't meant to fly, just testing the construction and how to move and service one. It might "fly" if it fails cryo-proofing, but most likely BN2 or BN3 will be the first to fly, and even then, not that high(probably as high as SN8-10). I do hope they can begin orbital test flights by the end of the year though